国信证券：主流制冷剂价格持续上涨 液冷板块开启增长空间

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the prices of mainstream refrigerants are expected to stabilize and grow in the future, particularly for R32 and R134a, due to limited available supply and strong support from the supply side [2][6][7] - R32 new order prices are projected to increase further, with average prices expected to be 62,000 yuan/ton, 63,000 yuan/ton, and 64,000 yuan/ton for September to November [1][2] - R134a prices are also expected to rise, with average prices projected at 52,000 yuan/ton, 53,000 yuan/ton, and 54,000 yuan/ton for the same period [2][6] Group 2 - The air conditioning production base was high last year, leading to a decline in total air conditioning production year-on-year in September 2025, with a drop of 6.3% in September and 23.4% in October [3][4] - Domestic air conditioning production showed strong growth in the first half of 2025, but the export market began to decline from May, with a total export of 44.92 million units from January to July, up 4.2% year-on-year [3][4] Group 3 - The development of AI technology is significantly increasing server power density, making traditional air cooling methods reach their limits, thus driving demand for liquid cooling technologies [1][5] - Liquid cooling technologies, such as immersion and two-phase cold plate cooling, are expected to lead to rapid growth in the demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [5][6] - Companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379), and Dongyue Group are recommended for their strong positions in the fluorochemical industry [5][7] Group 4 - The second-generation refrigerant quota reduction is accelerating, and the third-generation refrigerant quota system will continue, indicating a long-term trend of tightening supply constraints [6][7] - The demand side is influenced by national subsidy policies and growing demand in emerging regions, leading to significant increases in domestic and foreign air conditioning production and shipments [6][7] - The supply of second-generation refrigerants like R22 is expected to shrink rapidly, creating a supply-demand gap in 2025 [6][7]