KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 09:30Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor sector is experiencing a notable upward movement, with several key companies seeing significant stock price increases, indicating a potential recovery in the market. Group 1: Stock Performance - The liquor sector in A-shares has shown a strong performance, with Jinhuijiu rising over 4%, and other major brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Laobai Gan Jiu increasing by more than 2% [1] - The white liquor fund LOF (161725) has seen a 0.73% increase, with early trading volume exceeding 31 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Inflows - The white liquor fund LOF (161725) has experienced a total net inflow of 250 million yuan over the past 11 trading days, despite the index being down for five consecutive years [2] Group 3: Guizhou Moutai Developments - Guizhou Moutai's controlling shareholder has increased its stake by 67,821 shares, amounting to 100 million yuan, and plans to invest between 3 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan over the next six months [3] - Guizhou Moutai reported record revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively [3] Group 4: Valuation Insights - According to CICC, the liquor sector's valuation has become attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 19.3 times for 2025, which is a 45% premium over the CSI 300, lower than the historical average of 141% since 2005 [4] - The sector's valuation has been supported by strong domestic demand and limited impact from trade tensions, although it faced pressure from declining consumption and policy factors in the second quarter [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - CICC anticipates that the liquor industry may continue to face pressure in the third quarter, but there are signs of demand recovery since August, suggesting a potential bottoming out by next year's Spring Festival [6] - The improvement in market liquidity and gradual recovery of consumption scenarios indicate a mid-term upward trend for the liquor sector [6]