GCL TECH(HK:03800) Ge Long Hui·2025-09-02 12:17Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to supply-demand mismatches and intensified competition leading to prices falling below cash costs. However, there are signs of recovery as supply-side reforms progress and the industry stabilizes [1]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.84%, and a net loss of 1.776 billion yuan, with the same figure for non-recurring net profit [1]. - The average cash cost of granular silicon production in H1 2025 was 26.22 yuan/kg, with a quarterly cash cost of 25.31 yuan/kg in Q2 2025, indicating a continued trend of cost reduction [1]. Product Quality Improvement - The company has significantly improved product quality, achieving a purity level where 91.8% of products met the standard of total metal impurities ≤1 ppbw by Q2 2025. The proportion of granular silicon products with turbidity ≤70 NTU increased from 25% in September 2024 to 57.4% in Q2 2025 [1]. - The market share of the company in H1 2025 was 24.32%, an increase of 9.74 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [1]. Technological Advancements - The company’s GW-level perovskite production line commenced mass production in June 2025, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of perovskite photovoltaic technology [1]. - The company has achieved several global records in perovskite technology, including the largest single-junction and tandem perovskite modules, the highest efficiency for large-size modules, and the first to pass rigorous stability tests [1]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.594 billion yuan, 21.309 billion yuan, and 24.398 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of -2.375 billion yuan, 0.838 billion yuan, and 2.189 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 39x and 15x [1]. - As the photovoltaic industry undergoes capacity clearing and the company continues to lower production costs, profitability is expected to recover alongside an increase in market share [1].