高盛喊出2104元目标价，“牛市旗手”寒武纪配不配？

Group 1 - The main theme of the current bull market is technology, with Cambrian (688256.SH) emerging as a key player in AI chip domestic substitution, earning the nickname "China's Nvidia" despite room for performance improvement [2][3] - Cambrian's half-year report for 2025 showed a staggering revenue increase of 43 times, marking its first half-year profit, with ByteDance as its largest customer [2][9] - Cambrian's stock price surged dramatically, starting from approximately 679 yuan on July 10 to a peak of 1587.91 yuan by August 28, reflecting a monthly increase of 134% and a market capitalization exceeding 664.3 billion yuan [3][4][8] Group 2 - Cambrian's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 111% from 2025 to 2027, driven by the demand for cloud chips [9][11] - ByteDance is anticipated to contribute significantly to Cambrian's revenue, with estimates suggesting that Cambrian could capture 300 to 500 billion yuan from ByteDance's AI chip procurement [11][12] - Cambrian's operational efficiency is highlighted by its stable personnel size, indicating low marginal costs as revenue scales from 10 billion to 100 billion yuan [12][13] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised Cambrian's target price to 1835 yuan, citing increased capital expenditure from Chinese cloud companies and a diversified chip platform as key factors [14][15] - The valuation methodology employed by Goldman Sachs involves a discounted EV/EBITDA approach, projecting Cambrian's EBITDA and enterprise value for 2030 [16][17] - Analysts have raised concerns about the optimistic assumptions in Goldman Sachs' valuation model, suggesting that minor adjustments to key variables could significantly alter the target price [21][24][27] Group 4 - The domestic substitution theme remains a major catalyst for the technology sector, with recent events highlighting the geopolitical tensions surrounding AI chip supply [30][32] - The market's trust in Nvidia's H20 chip has been shaken, leading to a shift in demand towards domestic alternatives like Cambrian and Huawei's Ascend 920 [34][37] - Despite the advancements in domestic chip capabilities, challenges remain in software toolchain maturity and developer community engagement, which are crucial for competitive positioning [38]