中金：维持南山铝业国际跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至52.59港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit forecast for Nanshan Aluminum (600219) for 2025/2026 by 7%/9% to $374 million/$500 million due to increased production and sales as well as rising prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached approximately $597 million, a year-on-year increase of 41.0%, while the profit attributable to shareholders was about $248 million, up 124.2% year-on-year [1] - The increase in performance was primarily driven by higher sales prices [1] - The alumina sales volume in 1H25 was 1.127 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with an average selling price of $529 per ton, up 36.9% year-on-year [2] - The operating cost per ton of alumina was $260, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, mainly due to rising raw material prices [2] - The gross profit margin reached 50.9%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 70.1% [2] Group 2: Tax and Dividend Policy - Starting January 1, 2025, the company will comply with the OECD's global anti-base erosion rules, increasing its income tax rate to 15%, up approximately 6 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The company announced its first interim dividend post-listing, with a payout ratio of about 20% to reward shareholders [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Position - As of August 2025, the company has established alumina production capacity of 3 million tons per year, with the second phase of a new project expected to be operational in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 [4] - The company is set to become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia following the second phase capacity launch, enhancing its market influence in the region [4] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from cost advantages due to abundant bauxite and coal resources in Indonesia, along with logistical efficiencies from expanding a deep-water port [5] - The project is located in the Karangbata Economic Zone, which offers a 20-year tax incentive, allowing alumina products to serve the entire Southeast Asian region [5] - The three major shareholders possess strong industry advantages across the alumina production and supply chain, facilitating synergy and complementary strengths [5]