Apple(US:AAPL) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-03 08:15Core Viewpoint - Citi states that the iPhone 17 series is unlikely to drive a strong upgrade cycle, suggesting that attention should shift to three major product launches next year: advanced Siri, foldable phones, and Vision Pro 2 [1][2]. Group 1: iPhone 17 Series Insights - The iPhone 17 series is expected to have a modest shipment increase, with projections of 82 million units in 2025, compared to 81 million for the iPhone 16 [1][5]. - Despite nearly half of iPhone users still using iPhone 14 or earlier models, the incremental upgrades of the iPhone 17 are not expected to stimulate a large-scale replacement [2][8]. - Key features of the iPhone 17 series include a new 3nm chip, 12GB RAM, camera upgrades, and a potential price increase of $50 for Pro models [3][4]. Group 2: Future Growth Catalysts - The real growth catalysts for Apple are anticipated to come from the launches of advanced Siri, foldable phones, and Vision Pro 2 next year, which are expected to drive a stronger upgrade cycle [2][6]. - Interest in foldable phones has slightly increased to 60%, indicating a potential market shift [8]. - Apple's Vision Pro is projected to capture about 30% of the AR/VR device market, with over 30% of users planning to purchase new headsets considering Vision Pro [9]. Group 3: Market and Consumer Insights - IDC has raised its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 from 0.6% to 1%, primarily driven by a 3.9% growth in iPhone shipments [5]. - Consumer research indicates that smartphone upgrade intentions have decreased compared to last year, despite a stable replacement cycle expectation [5]. - Approximately 55% of iPhone users utilize Apple services, showing continued penetration opportunities for the company [5].