Salesforce：AI到底是“救星”还是“丧钟”？

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce's Q2 FY2026 performance was stable but lacked significant growth momentum, primarily influenced by favorable exchange rates rather than organic growth [1][2][10]. Revenue and Growth - Subscription revenue grew by 10.6% year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations, but this growth was largely due to favorable exchange rates, with constant currency growth remaining around 9% over the past four quarters [3][17]. - All five major cloud segments experienced a 1% to 3% sequential increase in growth, but traditional IT spending areas like sales, service, and marketing showed only single-digit growth, indicating maturity in these segments [3][19]. - AI-related segments, particularly platform cloud and data analytics, showed stronger growth at 17% and 13% respectively, with annualized revenue contributions from AI and data cloud reaching $1.2 billion, up from $1 billion in the previous quarter [3][19]. Profitability and Cost Management - Gross profit for the quarter was approximately $8 billion, reflecting an 11.6% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 78.1%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][28]. - Total operating expenses were $5.66 billion, growing by only 5.2% year-over-year, which is significantly lower than revenue growth, allowing for an increase in profit margins [8][31]. - The GAAP operating margin improved to 22.8%, marking a historical high, with operating profit increasing by nearly 31% year-over-year [36]. Forward Guidance - For the next quarter, Salesforce expects revenue growth of 8% to 9% year-over-year, with diluted EPS guidance of $1.61, indicating limited growth potential in new business areas [11][12]. - The company has raised prices for most enterprise versions by an average of 6%, but this has not translated into accelerated revenue growth, suggesting limited impact from AI initiatives [11][12]. Market Position and Challenges - Salesforce's valuation remains low within the SaaS industry, with a projected free cash flow multiple of 16x to 17x for FY2026, indicating potential for a rebound but lacking clear upward momentum [12][10]. - Concerns persist regarding the potential of AI to replace traditional software services, with Salesforce's AI agent business still in early stages and not yet demonstrating significant revenue impact [10][12].