LBX(SH:603883) Hu Xiu·2025-09-04 06:41Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of China's chain pharmacy industry has come to a halt, with significant closures expected in the coming years, indicating a shift from expansion to survival strategies [1][2][3][34]. Industry Overview - Over the past 15 years, the number of pharmacies in China has increased from 381,400 in 2009 to over 680,000 by the end of 2024, with a market size exceeding 153.1 billion yuan [1]. - The industry is experiencing its first negative growth phase, with approximately 39,000 retail pharmacies closing in 2024 and a net decrease of about 3,000 pharmacies in the first quarter of 2025 [3][13]. Company Strategies - Some listed pharmacy companies, such as 老百姓 (老百姓), have signaled a pause in expansion, with plans to open only 1,000 new stores in 2025, primarily through franchising [4][5]. - The focus has shifted from aggressive expansion to cost-cutting and survival, with many companies now discussing how to reduce losses rather than how to grow [15][28]. Market Dynamics - The influx of capital into the pharmacy sector led to inflated valuations and a bubble in the number of pharmacies, with many opening not to sell drugs but to sell the pharmacies themselves [11][24]. - The current market conditions have made it difficult for pharmacies to sell stores, as valuations have dropped significantly, with market values now at only 30-40% of sales revenue [24]. Financial Performance - A chain pharmacy operator reported a loss of over 20 million yuan in the previous year, with ongoing closures and layoffs as part of a strategy to reduce financial burdens [18]. - The profit margins for pharmacies have drastically decreased, with some companies reporting net profit margins as low as 1-3%, leading to a bleak outlook for the industry [27][28]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a continued decline in the number of pharmacies, with estimates suggesting a reduction to around 400,000 pharmacies in the next three to five years [25]. - The shift from a growth-driven model to a more sustainable structure is necessary, as the previous reliance on rapid expansion is no longer viable [34].