UBS(US:UBS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-04 07:24Group 1 - UBS warns that the risk of a U.S. economic recession is as high as 93% based on "hard data" from May to July 2025, describing the current situation as "stable but high-risk" [1] - UBS does not formally predict a recession but expects weak economic growth in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [1][3] - The yield curve inversion, currently at 23%, is a significant danger signal indicating pressure in the bond market, having persisted for several months and significantly higher than early 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - Analysts are increasingly seeing signs of an economic slowdown in 2025, aligning with UBS's warnings, indicating a "broad but not deep" stagnation rather than a sharp decline [2] - Key economic indicators such as employment and production have not shown a collapse below trend levels, which typically precedes a recession [2] - UBS conveys that the U.S. economy is experiencing slow growth or mild contraction rather than a sudden collapse, raising concerns about potential stagflation [2] Group 3 - Despite a 93% recession risk indicator, UBS has not officially predicted a recession, instead projecting a weak economic growth in 2025 and improvement in 2026 [3] - The overall probability of recession in July was assessed at 52%, up from 37% in January, a level historically associated with recessions [3] - Other experts, including Moody's Mark Zandi, warn that the U.S. is on the edge of recession, citing weak employment data and downward revisions similar to past recessions [3]