液奶企稳、奶粉“摘冠”，伊利的压力仍然存在

Core Viewpoint - Yili has demonstrated resilience as a leading dairy company, with both revenue and net profit returning to positive growth after a deep adjustment period in the raw milk industry in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Yili's revenue reached 61.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with Q2 revenue at 28.9 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, increased nearly 32% year-on-year to 7.016 billion yuan, benefiting from lower raw milk costs and optimized sales expense ratios [2] - Despite a decline in cash flow from operating activities, Yili's confidence in achieving its annual targets of 119 billion yuan in revenue and 12.6 billion yuan in total profit remains strong [2][3] Operational Challenges - Yili faces dual pressures from weak demand and low milk prices, leading to a significant decline in net cash flow from operating activities, which fell over 44% year-on-year [3][28] - The company's interest-bearing liabilities reached 65.78 billion yuan by the end of the first half, an increase of over 5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [4] - Cash reserves decreased by 7.8 billion yuan to 17.6 billion yuan due to dividend distribution for the 2024 fiscal year [5] Market Position and Strategy - Yili's liquid milk business has stabilized, with revenue of 36.126 billion yuan in the first half, a slight decline of 2% compared to a 13% drop in the same period last year [7] - The company has successfully reduced inventory by 7.6% and shortened inventory turnover days from 55 to 46 days [12] - Yili has introduced high-quality products in emerging channels and lower-tier markets, with non-traditional channels accounting for 30% of liquid milk revenue [15] Growth in Milk Powder Segment - The milk powder segment has become a significant growth driver, with revenue increasing from 26.3 billion yuan in 2021 to 29.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% [18] - In the first half of 2025, milk powder revenue grew 14.26% year-on-year to 16.58 billion yuan, accounting for 26.8% of total revenue [19] - Yili's market share in the infant formula segment reached 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, positioning it as the market leader [20] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the infant formula market remains intense, with both Yili and Feihe offering subsidies to new parents, although their strategies differ [23] - Feihe is currently undergoing inventory adjustments, which has impacted its revenue and profit, while Yili's market position appears more stable [22][24] Future Outlook - Yili anticipates that the liquid milk industry will eventually stabilize, with a focus on achieving a balance between supply and demand [29] - The company believes that long-term growth potential exists in the liquid milk sector, driven by demographic trends and increasing consumer health awareness [35]