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国信证券(香港):银行板块业绩筑底 关注顺周期标的宁波银行等

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) indicates that 2025 marks the end of the current downcycle for the banking sector, with expectations for improvement in the industry fundamentals next year, maintaining an "outperform" rating for the sector [1] Group 1: Overall Review - In the first half of 2025, listed banks reported total operating income of 2.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.10 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The growth in income and net profit accelerated compared to the first quarter, primarily due to a decline in market interest rates in the second quarter, which reduced the drag from bond investment losses and other non-interest income on net profit growth [1] Group 2: Net Interest Margin - The overall net interest margin for listed banks decreased by 14 basis points year-on-year to 1.41%, a decline similar to the 13 basis points drop in the first quarter, but narrower than the 17 basis points decline in 2024 [2] - On a quarterly basis, the net interest margin fell by 4 basis points from the first to the second quarter [2] - The outlook for the year suggests that the net interest margin will continue to narrow due to LPR cuts and weak credit demand, although the decline is expected to be slightly lessened by the drop in deposit rates in May [2] Group 3: Asset Quality - The pressure on asset quality is marginally increasing, characterized by rising overdue rates and an increase in the non-performing loan generation rate, primarily in the retail sector [3] - Provisioning efforts have intensified, with the ratio of loan loss provisions to non-performing loan generation rising to 106%, although this remains at a historically low level [3] Group 4: Asset Scale - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total assets of listed banks grew by 9.6% year-on-year, with a notable rebound in growth rates from the six major banks and city commercial banks [4] Group 5: Non-Interest Income - After three years of adjustment, net fee income has rebounded in the first half of this year [5] - Other non-interest income saw a significant decline in growth in the first quarter due to rising market interest rates, but rebounded in the second quarter as market rates fell again [5] Group 6: Industry Outlook - The current banking fundamentals are under pressure, with net interest margin being the primary source of stress and a slight increase in asset quality pressure [6] - With policy support for net interest margins and the impact of the May deposit rate cuts, the decline in net interest margin is expected to narrow next year, and a turning point for retail loan non-performing generation may be seen in 2026 [6] - Overall, 2025 is viewed as a year of bottoming out, with potential for revenue and profit growth to turn upward in 2026 [6]