Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-05 02:20Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show an increase of 60,000 jobs, slightly below market expectations of 75,000, but above the three-month average of 35,000, reflecting a mixed impact of private sector job growth and government job cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data and Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts a modest improvement in private sector employment, estimating an increase of 80,000 jobs, supported by alternative data sources indicating an average growth of 81,000 jobs in August [2]. - The report highlights a historical tendency for August non-farm payroll data to show initial weakness, with a median decline of 39,000 jobs compared to the previous three-month average since 2010 [3]. - The anticipated unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.248% in July to 4.3% in August, influenced by various labor market indicators [5]. Group 2: Government Employment and Policy Impact - Government employment is projected to decline by 20,000 jobs, primarily due to a hiring freeze that has been extended, impacting federal job numbers [3]. - The report suggests that recent government policies, including tariffs and immigration restrictions, may continue to exert pressure on job growth in certain sectors, particularly manufacturing [4][3]. Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - The Conference Board's labor differential indicator has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 9.7, indicating a cooling labor market, which is the lowest level since February 2021 [5]. - The two-week moving average of continuing unemployment claims shows an upward trend, suggesting increasing job market pressures [5].