英伟达、AMD寡淡？博通AI业务狂飙

Overall Performance - Broadcom (AVGO.O) achieved revenue of $15.95 billion in the latest quarter, a year-over-year increase of 22%, meeting market expectations of $15.86 billion, primarily driven by AI business and VMware integration pricing adjustments [1][12][40] - The company's gross margin was 67.1%, while the adjusted operating gross margin, excluding acquisition amortization and restructuring costs, was 76.8%, reflecting a sequential decline due to the lower margin of custom ASIC business [2][45] Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor segment generated $9.17 billion in revenue, with a sequential increase of $760 million, largely attributed to AI business growth [3][59] - AI business revenue reached $5.2 billion, an increase of $800 million quarter-over-quarter, exceeding market expectations of $5.1 billion, driven by increased production of Google's TPU v6 [3][21] - Non-AI business revenue was $4 billion, showing a sequential decline of 1%, with wireless and industrial segments remaining flat while enterprise storage continued to decline [5][67] Infrastructure Software - The infrastructure software segment reported $6.79 billion in revenue, a sequential increase of $190 million, mainly due to VMware acquisition integration and subscription model adjustments [6][72] - The transition from perpetual licensing to subscription models is expected to benefit software business growth, although the high-growth phase has likely ended [6][72] Operating Expenses - Core operating expenses (R&D and SG&A) totaled $4.12 billion, a sequential increase of $346 million, with the core operating expense ratio around 30% [7][46] - Excluding stock-based compensation, core operating expenses were $2.05 billion, reflecting a sequential decline of $150 million, indicating ongoing cost control efforts post-VMware acquisition [8][13] VMware Integration Progress - The total debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA ratio decreased to 2.3, indicating that the impact of the VMware acquisition is being gradually absorbed [9][54] - The company is focusing on AI business growth following the integration of VMware, with significant attention on custom ASIC developments [16][74] Future Guidance - For Q4 FY2025, Broadcom expects revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, surpassing market expectations of $17 billion, with AI business projected to grow to $6.2 billion [10][21] - The company anticipates continued growth in AI revenue, supported by increased capital expenditures from major cloud providers [4][17] AI Business Insights - Broadcom's AI revenue is primarily driven by three major clients: Google, Meta, and ByteDance, with expectations for further growth as these companies increase capital expenditures [16][21] - The company has secured over $10 billion in AI-related orders from a fourth client, with deliveries expected to start in Q3 FY2026, enhancing future revenue prospects [25][64] - Broadcom's ASIC business is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand from cloud service providers, with a strong pipeline of potential clients transitioning to production [18][66] Market Position and Valuation - Broadcom's current market capitalization is approximately $1.4 trillion, with a projected core operating profit of around 36 times PE for FY2026 [29] - Compared to Nvidia's valuation, Broadcom's higher valuation reflects market expectations for growth in its custom ASIC business and AI chip market share [30][36] - Broadcom has surpassed AMD in market share within the AI chip market, achieving 9.6% compared to AMD's 6.0%, indicating a strengthening position in the custom ASIC segment [31][36]