东吴证券：啤酒量价节奏相对平稳 关注场景修复节奏

Group 1 - The overall performance of the beer industry in the first half of 2025 shows steady revenue growth and double-digit profit increase, with total revenue reaching 41.534 billion yuan, up 2.75% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.512 billion yuan, up 11.81% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the beer sector's revenue was 20.043 billion yuan and 21.491 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.68% and 1.90%, while net profits were 2.519 billion yuan and 3.993 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 10.62% and 12.57% [1] - The beer market is expected to see a recovery in consumption patterns, with potential for beta configuration opportunities in the beer sector if consumer policies improve marginally [1] Group 2 - The beer industry's sales and price performance have been weak in 2025, attributed to slow recovery in consumer spending and temporary policy impacts on on-premise consumption [2] - Despite the weak beta performance, emerging brands like Yan Beer and Zhu Beer have shown strong sales and pricing performance, while overall cost elasticity continues to improve, leading to a steady increase in gross profit margins [2] - The beer sector is anticipated to maintain a steady operational trend in the second half of 2025, supported by resilient demand from middle-income consumers and a recovery in beer production [3] Group 3 - The free cash flow of leading Chinese beer companies is expected to remain at a high-quality level, with increasing dividend and yield rates, driven by significant improvements in net profit margins since 2018 [3] - The focus on high-end beer products and the gradual reduction of capital expenditures from previous peaks are expected to support the continued stability of free cash flow [3]