Amazon(US:AMZN) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-05 04:34Core Insights - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is experiencing significant growth potential driven by its deep collaboration with Anthropic, which is not fully recognized by the market [1][21] - Barclays analysts predict that if AWS maintains its partnership with Anthropic, it could exceed revenue growth expectations in Q4 [14][16] AWS and Anthropic Collaboration - Anthropic is currently contributing approximately 1% to AWS's growth, with potential to increase to 4% per quarter due to Claude 5 training and existing inference revenue [1][16] - By 2025, Anthropic is expected to generate around $1.6 billion in inference revenue for AWS, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) projected to rise from $1 billion at the beginning of the year to $9 billion by year-end [1][9] Anthropic API Business - Anthropic's API business is projected to reach $3.9 billion in revenue by 2025, with 90% of its total revenue derived from this segment [2][6] - The API revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a 662% increase from $512 million in 2024 to $3.9 billion in 2025 [7][9] Comparison with OpenAI - Anthropic has established a significant advantage over OpenAI in the API business, with 90% of its revenue coming from APIs compared to OpenAI's 26% [6][9] - Anthropic's API revenue is expected to grow at a much faster rate than OpenAI's, with Anthropic's API revenue projected to increase from $1 billion in 2024 to $1.8 billion in 2025, representing an 80% growth rate [9][8] Market Expectations and Growth Projections - Barclays maintains an "overweight" rating on Amazon with a target price of $275, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current stock price [5] - AWS's revenue growth for Q4 is expected to exceed market consensus of 18%, driven by Anthropic's contributions [14][16] AI Capacity Expansion - AWS is significantly expanding its AI computing capacity, with estimates suggesting it may have over 1 million H100 equivalent AI capacities by the end of 2025 [17][20] - The expansion is crucial for supporting the rapid growth of Anthropic and other partners in the AI space [20] Challenges in the Partnership - Despite the benefits of the collaboration, there are potential challenges, including complaints about access to Anthropic models via AWS Bedrock and key clients like Cursor shifting towards OpenAI's GPT-5 API [21][21] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with AWS positioned at the core of the AI revenue trend, assuming 70% of Anthropic's revenue is hosted on AWS [21][22]