自动驾驶愿景难解“近渴” 马斯克预警“艰难季度”特斯拉(TSLA.US)万亿市值摇摇欲坠？

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is experiencing a significant decline in electric vehicle deliveries, expected to drop for the second consecutive year, with CEO Elon Musk warning of "several tough quarters" ahead due to the end of U.S. car purchase incentives [1] Sales Performance - Tesla's first-quarter delivery volume fell to a near three-year low, partly due to the redesign process of the Model Y, which led to production halts at assembly plants [2] - Overall deliveries decreased by 13% year-on-year, contradicting Musk's earlier claims of improved sales [3] - In Europe, Tesla's new registrations plummeted by over one-third from January to July, despite a 26% growth in the overall electric vehicle market [5] Competitive Landscape - Tesla's struggles have created opportunities for competitors like BYD, which surpassed Tesla in pure electric vehicle sales in Europe for the first time in April [5] - Tesla's market share in the U.S. electric vehicle segment has shrunk from over 75% in 2022 to below 50% in 2024 [5] - New entrants, such as Xiaomi, are threatening Tesla's position, with their electric vehicle YU7 receiving nearly 300,000 pre-orders shortly after launch [8] Product Strategy - Tesla has maintained a limited product line with only five models, while competitors like BYD offer a wider range of more affordable options [7] - A new, more affordable model is expected to launch later this year, but it may not be a completely new vehicle, limiting Tesla's ability to compete with rivals [8] Political and Market Challenges - Musk's political affiliations have negatively impacted Tesla's sales, particularly in Democratic strongholds like California, where registrations have declined for four consecutive quarters [9] - The expiration of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit may temporarily boost sales as consumers rush to purchase before the deadline, but overall sales may still be constrained by weak performance in Europe and China [12] Future Outlook - Tesla's expansion into India has been underwhelming, with only about 600 orders received due to high import tariffs making vehicles unaffordable for most consumers [14] - Analysts estimate that Tesla may not surpass last year's sales of 1.79 million vehicles, contrasting with a projected 19% growth in the global electric vehicle market by 2025 [15] - Musk emphasizes the company's future focus on autonomous driving and humanoid robots, although these technologies are not yet contributing significantly to financial metrics [17]