Company Overview - The company has organized a post-performance NDR communication, indicating that short-term event impacts are gradually dissipating, with self-broadcasting continuing to show healthy and strong growth. Brand acquisition and influencer marketing are gradually recovering, suggesting that the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival may further restore brand momentum [1][2] - The company is recognized as a leader in collagen products, with a strong outlook for future growth, and is advised to strategically position itself for the recovery opportunities during the Double Eleven season [1] Short-term Performance - In the first half of the year, the company optimized its self-broadcasting matrix and strengthened product selection strategies, maintaining good growth despite short-term event impacts. Monitoring data shows that the brand "可复美" achieved over 50% GMV growth in self-broadcasting and product card sales on Douyin during July and August, with repurchase rates remaining high, indicating limited impact on loyal customers [1] - Influencer marketing faced significant short-term impacts but is gradually recovering, with "可复美" achieving approximately 23% market share in influencer marketing during the industry off-peak period of July and August, showing a rebound from the event impact phase [1][2] Product Development - The company has successfully expanded its brand audience and product efficacy through single product cultivation since its listing. The foundational R&D and enhanced market insights have led to continuous improvement in the product development chain. The "可复美" brand has established multiple product lines, including collagen repair series and focus series, with the collagen repair series performing well in the first half of the year [2] - The core products of the "可丽金" brand also showed strong online growth, indicating a solidified market presence. The company's ability to cultivate single products is expected to continue supporting long-term brand growth [2] Upcoming Opportunities - As the Double Eleven shopping season approaches, the recovery of influencer marketing is expected to drive brand momentum back on track. The company maintains communication with top influencers, which has yielded positive results. Increased influencer marketing frequency is anticipated to boost marketing efforts and accelerate brand acquisition [2] - The company has made positive progress in obtaining certifications for three types of medical devices since the beginning of the year, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth in the future [2] Financial Forecast - The company maintains a profit forecast of 2.5 billion to 3.2 billion CNY for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2025 and 17x for 2026. The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 82 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 50% [2]
巨子生物(02367.HK)：短期事件平稳过渡 前瞻布局双十一旺季修复