RONGSHEGN ENVIRONMENTAL(SH:603165) Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2025-09-05 15:06Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry, represented by companies like Rongsheng Environmental Protection, is facing significant profit declines due to falling sales prices that outpace the reduction in raw material costs, a trend observed across the industry [1][3]. Company Performance - Rongsheng Environmental Protection reported a revenue of 1.061 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.53%, with a net profit of 115 million yuan, down 34.57% [1][2]. - The company's second-quarter performance showed a revenue of 528 million yuan, a decline of 8.39%, and a net profit of 44.43 million yuan, down 47.47% [2]. - Other companies in the industry also reported profit declines, with Shanying International's net profit down 63.17% to 41.82 million yuan and Xianhe Co.'s net profit down 13.8% to 474 million yuan despite a revenue increase of 30.14% [1][2]. Industry Overview - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a demand contraction, particularly in packaging paper and cultural paper, attributed to a slowdown in e-commerce growth leading to reduced orders [2][3]. - National statistics indicate that the total profit of the paper and paper products industry fell by 21.4% year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 2.3% [3]. - The average price of corrugated paper in the first half of 2025 was 3,616 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.42% year-on-year, with prices fluctuating between 3,787 yuan and 3,464 yuan [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with excess supply leading to price declines, and companies are attempting to raise prices to counteract this trend [5][6]. - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has initiated a campaign to promote fair pricing and discourage below-cost selling practices [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the price of corrugated paper will experience a trend of rising and then falling, with an expected price range of 3,455 to 3,525 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [6][7]. Future Outlook - Demand is anticipated to recover slightly in the second half of the year due to traditional peak seasons and e-commerce promotions, with total demand expected to increase by 5.11% to 1.843 million tons [7]. - However, the overall supply-demand pressure is expected to persist, with an additional 2.68 million tons of new capacity set to be released, leading to a projected total supply of 21.59 million tons, a 4.34% increase from the first half [6][7].