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顺丰同城(09699.HK):盈利高增长 期待成长逻辑持续兑现

Core Viewpoint - SF Express's performance in H1 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by strong demand in the ToB delivery and last-mile logistics sectors, benefiting from the rapid expansion of the food delivery and instant retail industries [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.236 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.81% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, up 120.43% year-on-year - Adjusted net profit reached 160 million yuan, reflecting a 138.97% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The ToB delivery and last-mile business experienced high growth, with same-city delivery order volume increasing by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to a revenue increase of 43.11% to 5.779 billion yuan - ToB delivery revenue was 4.467 billion yuan, up 55.42% year-on-year, with significant growth in the food delivery segment, particularly tea delivery, which saw a 105% increase [1] - ToC delivery revenue was 1.312 billion yuan, a 12.71% increase year-on-year, with "one-to-one exclusive delivery" revenue tripling, indicating rapid growth in lower-tier markets [1] Last-Mile Business - Last-mile business revenue reached 4.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.92% - The volume of collected items increased by over 150% year-on-year, with rapid growth in e-commerce delivery scale [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin was 6.65%, a slight decrease of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year - Overall improvement in expenses led to a decrease in the expense ratio by 0.85 percentage points to 5.41% - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 0.44 percentage points to 1.34%, with adjusted net profit margin at 1.6%, up 0.60 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is leveraging its brand strength and neutral positioning to penetrate diverse scenarios in the local life market, with continued expansion of its market share - The integration with the group's network is expected to further boost volume, while technology-driven cost reductions and refined management are anticipated to sustain the release of scale effects [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 22.096 billion yuan, 28.475 billion yuan, and 35.542 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 29%, and 25% respectively - Expected net profits for the same period are 298 million yuan, 515 million yuan, and 900 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 125%, 73%, and 75% respectively - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 42.46, 24.53, and 14.06 [3]