TSMC(US:TSM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-06 02:15Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China are significantly impacting TSMC, a leading player in the semiconductor industry, particularly following the US Department of Commerce's revocation of the "Verified End User" (VEU) exemption for TSMC and other companies operating in China [1][2][15] Group 1: Impact of VEU Revocation - The revocation of the VEU exemption will complicate TSMC's supply chain, increasing operational costs and reducing efficiency due to the need for individual export licenses for each shipment [1][4] - TSMC's Nanjing factory, which handles a substantial volume of mature process orders, may face significant disruptions, affecting the supply chains of various international chip manufacturers [8][10] - The US Department of Commerce anticipates an additional 1,000 export license applications annually due to the revocation, highlighting the increased administrative burden on companies [4][10] Group 2: Strategic Positioning of TSMC - TSMC is navigating a delicate balance between maintaining its business interests and managing relationships with both the US and Chinese markets, reflecting a cautious approach in its communications [2][6] - The tightening of US semiconductor export controls is part of a broader strategy to curb China's technological advancements, with TSMC caught in the middle of this geopolitical struggle [6][15] - The company's market capitalization has surged to over $1 trillion, driven by the rising demand for advanced chips, particularly in AI applications, positioning it as a key player in the global tech landscape [4][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing policy changes create heightened uncertainty and volatility in the semiconductor sector, compelling companies to adopt a more conservative investment stance [10][12] - The future of TSMC's VEU status and its negotiations with the US government remain uncertain, with potential implications for the global supply chain and the semiconductor industry at large [15][12] - The situation reflects a broader trend of "de-risking" within the global semiconductor supply chain, driven by national security concerns and the quest for technological independence [12][15]