Bank of America(US:BAC) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-06 04:18Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has shifted its stance from a hawkish monetary policy outlook to predicting two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, driven by weak labor market data and signs of a potential economic slowdown [1][2] Economic Predictions - Bank of America economists expect the U.S. inflation, measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, to reach 3% in August due to tariff effects, with further increases anticipated by year-end [2] - The new monetary policy forecast aligns with market expectations, indicating a 100% pricing for a September rate cut following disappointing employment data [2][3] Employment Data Insights - The August non-farm payrolls report showed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the median economist estimate of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2][3] - The downward revision of previous months' employment data, including a negative growth in June, has led to increased speculation about more aggressive rate cuts [2][3] Federal Reserve's Stance - The shift in Bank of America's predictions marks a departure from its previous stance of not expecting rate cuts until next year, highlighting a significant change in the economic outlook [1][3] - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for rate cuts, while others remain cautious due to persistent inflation concerns [4]