瑞穗银行：美联储已被现实“打脸”，宽松周期即将启动

Core Viewpoint - The August non-farm payroll report from the U.S. indicates a weakening labor market, with employment, hours worked, and income growth returning to pandemic levels, suggesting a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with key metrics such as employment, hours worked, and income growth reverting to levels seen during the pandemic [1] - Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if inflation data for August is weaker than expected [1] - Previous inflation forecasts by the Federal Reserve have proven overly pessimistic, while their predictions regarding the labor market have been overly optimistic [1] - Future Interest Rate Projections - A sustained easing cycle is anticipated, aiming to lower rates to around 3% by March 2026, which is considered the "neutral level" [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to implement further stimulus measures, potentially reducing rates close to 2% [1] - There is a risk that if inflation rises again, some of the stimulus measures may be reversed by 2027 [1]