中国婴配粉，老大换了？

Core Viewpoint - The competition in China's infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [1][3][4]. Company Performance - Yili's market share in the overall infant formula sector, including both cow and goat milk formulas, has reached 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% year-on-year to 16.578 billion [3]. - Feihe maintains its position as the leading single brand in the infant formula market, although its revenue declined by 9.36% to 9.151 billion [4]. Market Dynamics - The difference in rankings arises from the fact that Yili's figures include sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, while Feihe's data is based solely on its brand [4][5]. - Aoyou Dairy's sales have not significantly boosted Yili's performance, as its core goat milk brand saw a decline of 8.9% in sales to 1.38 billion [5][6]. - The market share gap between Yili and Feihe is narrow, with Euromonitor projecting Feihe's share at 17.5% and Yili's at 16.3% for 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - The infant formula market in China may face contraction due to a projected decline of over 20% in marriage registrations, indicating a potential decrease in newborn numbers [8]. - However, the market is not deemed unprofitable, as government subsidies for child-rearing may lead to a rebound in birth rates [9]. - The high-end segment of the infant formula market is growing, with parents increasingly willing to spend on premium products [10][11]. - Domestic dairy companies are well-positioned to benefit from this consumption upgrade, with Yili and Feihe having superior milk sources compared to EU standards [12]. - The competition in the market is seen as a positive force for industry progress, suggesting that fluctuations in rankings may indicate a dynamic and evolving market [12][13].