Huaxi Securities(SZ:002926) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-07 00:01Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market remains weak, with non-farm employment growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Non-farm employment in August increased by only 22,000, with an average of 27,000 over the past four months, indicating a concerning trend in job creation capacity [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.32%, the highest level since 2021, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have risen from approximately 60 basis points to 72 basis points, suggesting that the market anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each during the remaining Federal Reserve meetings in 2023 [1] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including the annual benchmark revision of non-farm employment and CPI data, will be crucial in shaping future interest rate expectations [3] - There is uncertainty regarding the likelihood of rate cuts in October and December, with October having a higher probability compared to December [4] Group 3 - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and gold prices rose, indicating market concerns about economic slowdown overshadowing rate cut expectations [5] - The potential for a recession trade is increasing, but concerns about stagflation may take precedence, as the labor market and consumer spending show signs of weakness [5] - In a stagflation-like environment, gold may perform relatively well, while equity assets may experience increased volatility [6]