Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-07 23:27Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle driven by "loose monetary policy, low interest rates, and improved risk appetite," alongside the "anti-involution" policy that strengthens expectations for capacity reduction [1] Price Review - Coal prices have seen an increase, with long-term contracts still providing strong support - From January to August 2025, coal prices showed a significant year-on-year decline, but after bottoming out in June, a rebound began - Current spot prices: thermal coal (Q5500) at 673 CNY/ton, down 22% year-on-year; coking coal at 1417 CNY/ton, down 35% year-on-year - Long-term contract prices: Qinhuangdao Q5500 at 678 CNY/ton, down 3% year-on-year; Henan premium coking coal at 1532 CNY/ton, down 30% year-on-year - With marginal improvements in supply and demand expected in the second half of 2025, coal prices are anticipated to strengthen amid seasonal fluctuations [2] Supply Side - The effects of "overproduction checks" are becoming evident, reinforcing expectations for supply contraction - Coal production maintained high growth but began to shrink significantly from July 2025 - From January to July 2025, the output of industrial raw coal was 2.78 billion tons, up 3.8% year-on-year; however, July output was 380 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of about 9.5% - The cost-effectiveness of domestic coal is weakening, leading to expectations of reduced import coal volumes; from January to July 2025, coal imports totaled 257 million tons, down 13% year-on-year - The external transportation capacity of Xinjiang coal may have reached its limit, with production expected to be 540 million tons in 2024, up 17.5%, and external transportation via rail at 90.61 million tons, up 50.5% [4][5] Demand Side - Downstream coal demand is increasingly differentiated, with chemical industry demand growth at 12.1%, steel at 0.9%, electricity at -1.8%, and construction materials at -3.1% - Electricity: "thermal power" is lagging, but recovery is expected in the second half of the year; from January to July 2025, national power generation grew by 1.3%, with thermal power down 1.3% - Steel: A growth stabilization plan has been introduced, with daily pig iron production expected to remain high at 2.4 million tons, supporting coal demand growth - Chemical industry: Demand for coal in modern coal chemical processes is expected to continue growing, with stable demand anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025 - Construction materials: Weakness in the real estate sector is expected to have a diminishing impact on coal consumption demand [6][7][8]