Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-08 02:01Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to see a rebound in performance as the negative impacts from Q2 earnings reports have been exhausted, with the upcoming peak demand season and supply contraction expectations supporting coal prices [1] Supply - In July, coal production decreased significantly due to rainfall and checks on overproduction, with a reduction of 4 million tons month-on-month and 900 thousand tons year-on-year [2] - The four major coal-producing regions all experienced a decline in output, with Xinjiang showing the largest month-on-month reduction [2] - Domestic coal prices increased in July, and while imports saw a slight recovery, they remained at relatively low levels compared to historical data [2] Demand - July marked the beginning of the demand peak season, with a notable increase in thermal power generation and sustained demand for chemical coal [3] - National coal consumption in July reached 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [3] - The upcoming non-electric demand peak season in September, along with winter storage needs, is expected to support coal demand [3] Inventory - Inventory levels across various sectors have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, which may provide support for coal prices [4] - Key coal mines in six major regions saw a month-on-month inventory reduction of 8.63%, although year-on-year levels increased by 15.04% [4] Price - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season [5] - In the thermal coal sector, prices have rebounded by nearly 100 yuan per ton, although they have recently declined from peak levels [5]