Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-08 02:53Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing a rally, driven by preliminary anti-dumping measures on EU pork imports, which may lead to an increase in domestic pork prices as supply tightens [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 8, the livestock sector saw significant gains, with companies like Lihua Co. rising over 7%, and others such as Xiaoming Co., Jinxinnong, and Shennong Group increasing by more than 5% [1]. - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) rose by 3.10% [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary investigation into anti-dumping of EU pork and by-products confirmed dumping behavior and its harm to the domestic industry, leading to a decision to implement temporary anti-dumping measures by September 5, 2025 [3]. - Over 50% of China's imported pork and by-products come from the EU, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties is expected to raise domestic pork prices [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - As of September 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.84 yuan/kg, indicating a low point in recent years, suggesting that current prices may be at a temporary bottom [3]. - The breeding stock of sows saw a slight decrease of 0.80% in August, indicating a tightening supply [5]. - The livestock sector's overall valuation remains low, with the CSI Livestock Breeding Index at 2.72 times PB, which is at the 16% historical percentile, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As temperatures cool, demand is expected to improve marginally, leading to tighter supply of market pigs and potentially increasing pork prices [7]. - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality improvement, with expectations of increased concentration and better supply-demand dynamics as policies take effect [7]. - The Livestock Breeding ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, indicating a strong focus on the sector [7].