国金证券：锂电迎金九终端旺季 中游价格现上扬

Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing heightened market attention, with historical valuation levels at a high point this month [1][3] - A new wave of capacity expansion in lithium batteries is expected in 2025, driven by breakthroughs in solid-state technology, leading to accelerated industry capital expenditure (Capex) and diversified industry chain prosperity [8] Industry Changes - Lithium Prices: As of August 25, lithium carbonate prices reached 60,000 yuan/ton, a 2% increase from the previous month, while lithium hydroxide prices fell to 58,000 yuan/ton, a 4% decrease [2] - Vehicle Sales: In July, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.07 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24% and a cumulative total of 7.17 million units from January to July, up 37% year-on-year [2] Market Performance - Since August 2025, the lithium battery sector has shown active performance, with most segments outperforming the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices. The lithium copper foil segment led with a 40% increase, while the battery segment saw an 8% decline [3] Research Focus - Lithium Sulfide: As a core material for solid-state batteries, lithium sulfide is in the early stages of industrialization, with leading companies planning expansions from ten to hundreds of tons. Various production methods are being explored, but cost reduction remains a challenge [4] Industry Insights - New Energy Vehicles: In July, sales in China, Europe, and the U.S. were 1.07 million, 240,000, and 140,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 45%, and 10% [5] - Energy Storage: Domestic energy storage installations in July were 7.7 GWh, down 10% year-on-year but up 11% month-on-month, while U.S. installations were 4.9 GWh, reflecting a 10% decrease year-on-year [5] Production Tracking - Lithium Battery Production: Expected year-on-year increases of 25% to 61% for various lithium battery components from January to September 2025, with September alone projected to exceed 40% growth for batteries, anodes, and electrolytes [6] - Price Trends: Overall lithium battery material prices have slightly increased, while separator prices continue to decline due to oversupply [6] New Technologies - Solid-State Equipment Orders: Orders for solid-state battery equipment have exceeded expectations, with significant year-on-year growth. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to conduct a mid-term review of solid-state battery projects by the end of 2025 [7] Investment Recommendations - The industry is recommended to focus on leading companies in niche markets and those involved in new solid-state technologies, including CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Industrial [8]