Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen a significant decline in stock price, dropping nearly 6% and over 40% from its August peak, indicating market concerns about its business model transition and financial performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Citigroup has revised its revenue forecasts for Oriental Selection for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 down by 36%, 31%, and 30% respectively, and profit forecasts down by 69%, 30%, and 26% respectively [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that the total gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the second half of the fiscal year ending May fell by 55% year-on-year to 3.9 billion RMB, which was 15% lower than their expectations [1] - Despite the decline in GMV, Oriental Selection managed to control operating expenses, resulting in earnings per share exceeding expectations [1] Group 2: Business Model Transition - Oriental Selection is shifting its business model from relying on leading influencers to a scaled membership platform, with expectations of reaching 264,000 paid members and a monthly repurchase rate of 40% [1] - The gross margin for its proprietary brand is expected to recover from a low of 10% to 24% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to reach 7% to 8% by 2028, up from the current 4% [1] Group 3: Analyst Ratings - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Oriental Selection, although it emphasizes that the effectiveness of the transformation needs to be validated over several quarters [1] - Goldman Sachs, citing ongoing weak fundamentals and high valuations, continues to hold a "Sell" rating on the stock [1]
东方甄选跌近6% 较8月高点已回撤逾四成 花旗称其转型成效仍待验证