天风证券：海外扩张尾声+“反内卷” 甲醇行业景气度有望持续上行

Core Viewpoint - The global methanol market is experiencing an oversupply due to a production capacity growth rate of 4.6% per year over the past five years, outpacing demand growth of 2.7% per year, leading to a potential long-term supply-demand imbalance [1][2] Group 1: Global Methanol Supply - Over the past five years, global methanol production capacity has increased at a rate of 4.6% per year, exceeding the demand growth rate of 2.7% per year, resulting in a relative oversupply of methanol [1] - Future overseas capacity expansion is expected to be concentrated in Iran, with three methanol plants of 1.65 million tons planned for 2026-2028, although unstable natural gas supply poses significant uncertainties for project progress [1] - The existing methanol plants in Iran face operational challenges due to technical issues and natural gas limitations, leading to intermittent operations [1] Group 2: Domestic Methanol Production and Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed stricter approvals for new coal chemical projects, aiming to optimize industrial layout and curb the expansion of outdated capacities, which may lead to delays in several large-scale coal-to-methanol projects [2] - The methanol industry has a significant portion of its production capacity (approximately 8%) from plants over 20 years old, with smaller, less efficient plants (30,000 tons and below) accounting for 27% of total capacity, indicating potential for optimization [2] - The coal-to-methanol production route is expected to face strict regulatory controls, while the supply of coke oven gas may be limited due to declining steel production, impacting overall methanol production from this route [2] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Despite supply constraints, the demand for methanol is anticipated to grow steadily due to emerging sectors, suggesting a long-term stable growth trajectory for methanol demand [2] - By 2025, the domestic methanol market is expected to have strong fundamentals characterized by high operating rates, low inventory, and profit recovery, indicating a potential upward trend in industry prosperity amid ongoing supply-demand conflicts [2] Group 4: Related Companies - Companies to watch include China Heart & Heart Fertilizer (01866), CNOOC Chemical (03983), Jinniu Chemical (600722), and Huayi Group (600623) [3]