Cinda Securities(SH:601059) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-08 08:44Core Viewpoint - The oil transportation sector is experiencing significant improvements in profitability, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics, with companies like COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) showing substantial profit increases in Q2 2025 [1] Supply Side - Recent U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil trade have tightened supply, with multiple tankers involved in Iranian oil transport being sanctioned [1] - As of September 6, 2025, the global capacity of sanctioned tankers reached 102.32 million deadweight tons, an increase of 84.08% from the beginning of 2025, representing 15.06% of global tanker capacity [2] - The planned delivery of tankers over 10,000 deadweight tons in 2025 totals 12.46 million deadweight tons, accounting for only 1.77% of global crude oil tanker capacity [3] Demand Side - China's crude oil import volume has shown a positive year-on-year growth, with imports in July 2025 reaching 47 million tons, a 11.48% increase [4] - From January to July 2025, China's total crude oil imports amounted to 327 million tons, reflecting a 2.8% year-on-year growth [4] - The OPEC+ meeting on September 7, 2025, announced a monthly production increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, reversing previous production cuts [4] Freight Rate Situation - The global weighted average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate for tankers reached $34,900 per day as of September 5, 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 53.53% [5] - The TCE for global crude oil tankers was $53,200 per day, reflecting an 82.89% year-on-year increase [5] - The BDTI-TD3C route (Persian Gulf to Far East) achieved a TCE of $53,800 per day, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 143.35% [5]