黄金创世纪！现货黄金突破3620美元，大多头高盛又看涨

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has surged past $3,620 per ounce, setting a new historical record, with a significant increase observed since September [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a sharp decline in U.S. labor market data, which has fueled expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3][8] - Gold has emerged as one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, with an increase of nearly $1,000, representing a 40% rise [4] Labor Market Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The downward revision of June's employment data from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000 marks the first monthly decline in employment since 2020 [7] Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 14 consecutive quarters, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons over the past three years, nearly double the average of the previous decade [8] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2,098 tons) as of the end of August, marking the tenth consecutive month of gold accumulation [8] Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that if only 1% of private holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds were to flow into the gold market, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [3][11] - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs outlines various scenarios where gold could reach $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [9][10][11] Dollar and Inflation Dynamics - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a weakening of the U.S. dollar, which is a significant factor driving up gold prices [5] - The strong negative correlation between gold and the dollar remains a key pricing logic, with further depreciation of the dollar likely to benefit gold prices [10]