GreatWall Military(SH:601606) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-08 14:42Core Viewpoint - The divergence between top-tier capital players, with significant buying and selling activities, serves as an important indicator for the market trend in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Capital Movements - Institutions and retail investors have reached a rare consensus in three key sectors: 1. Robotics industry chain: Retail investor "Little Crocodile" purchased 236 million in Sanhua Intelligent Control, while institutions net bought 93.46 million in Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, driven by the countdown to Tesla's Optimus robot mass production and the IPO catalyst of Yushu Technology, with core component orders visibility extending to Q1 2026 [3] 2. Semiconductor domestic substitution: Shannon Chip Creation saw a combined purchase of 318 million from institutions and retail investors, driven by Samsung and SK Hynix extending DDR4 production plans to 2026, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in memory chips [3] 3. Game AI applications: Sanqi Interactive Entertainment received 129 million from Shandong investors, with institutions also buying 93.46 million, due to AI-generated content accounting for over 70%, resulting in a 31% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2 [3] Group 2: Warning Signals - Two major sectors faced collective sell-offs: 1. Military industry: Great Wall Military was sold off by "New Trader" for 286 million and T Wang for 108 million, despite a 109 million net buy from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, indicating a strong internal capital exit due to over 30% delay in Q3 military product deliveries, leading to a sharp decline in performance certainty [4] 2. High-level new energy sector: Duofu Du, despite hitting the limit up, faced institutional sell-offs of 62.44 million, while Wenzhou investors sold 72.39 million in Tianci Materials, reflecting a consensus on deteriorating supply-demand conditions for lithium battery materials, with weak rebound in lithium carbonate prices being a significant issue [4] Group 3: Top-tier Capital Tactics - Analysis of top-tier capital strategies: 1. "Little Crocodile" (Sanhua Intelligent Control 236 million): Betting on the technical barriers of humanoid robot actuators, with Sanhua as a core supplier for Tesla, potentially contributing 25% of revenue from robot business by 2030 [5] 2. "New Trader" (Great Wall Military -286 million): The sell-off was due to delayed military orders and overvaluation, with the stock appearing on the leaderboard 9 times in 30 days, indicating liquidity traps [6] 3. Shandong investors (Sanqi Interactive Entertainment 129 million): Betting on the release of game licenses and AI cost reduction, with 166 domestic games approved in August, marking a new high for the year [6] Group 4: Mid-to-Long Term Strategies - Focus on three areas of certainty: 1. Prioritize order visibility: Select targets in the robotics industry chain (Sanhua Intelligent Control) and semiconductor equipment (Zhejiang Haideman) with order schedules extending to 2026 [7] 2. Avoid performance risk zones: Steer clear of military (delivery delays) and lithium battery (pressured lithium carbonate prices) sectors facing downward performance revisions [8] 3. Leverage foreign capital: Follow the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect's net buy of 109 million in Great Wall Military and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect's increase in Sanwei Communication by 170 million, as foreign capital buying against the trend often signals left-side opportunities [8] Conclusion - The key takeaway from the current market dynamics is the shift of capital from "story speculation" to "order fulfillment," with the robotics, semiconductor, and game AI sectors being recognized by both institutions and retail investors for their performance visibility [9]