国信证券：维持快手-W“优于大市”评级 可灵跻身全球第一梯队模型

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024), projecting adjusted profits of 20.2 billion, 23.8 billion, and 28.1 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with a CAGR of 15% and corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Kuaishou's first special dividend of HKD 0.46 per share totals HKD 2 billion, with a current shareholder return rate of approximately 2% [1] - As of June 2025, Kuaishou has total available funds of 101.9 billion CNY, laying a foundation for future AI business development and shareholder returns [1] - Net cash, excluding borrowings, amounts to 89.7 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Business Model and Advertising Revenue - Kuaishou's advertising business accounts for over half of its revenue, with a focus on building a content ecosystem and user community [1] - The company has significant growth potential in its advertising monetization capabilities, with a projected revenue of 0.23 CNY per hour for 2024 [2] - Kuaishou's operational capabilities have improved following key management changes and the integration of its commercial and e-commerce divisions [1][2] Group 3: AI and Content Creation - Kuaishou is positioned in the top tier of global AIGC (AI-Generated Content) companies, with a rapidly growing revenue stream [2] - The company has over 45 million creators globally for its AI product, Kling AI, which has generated over 2 billion videos and 400 million images [2] - Kling AI's annual revenue is expected to exceed 125 million USD, with over 70% of its income coming from overseas [2] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Kuaishou is the second-largest short video platform in China, leveraging its C-end ecosystem advantages while also accumulating B-end business in short dramas and advertising [3] - The global AI video creation market has surpassed 100 million creators, with a long-term market size projected to reach hundreds of billions [4] - Kuaishou's AI video product, Kling AI, is noted for its excellent performance in generating realistic videos and is well-positioned in the commercial landscape [4]