Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy experienced a decline in revenue and increased losses in the first half of 2025, primarily due to significant losses from the fair value changes of biological assets, while maintaining stable core profitability through effective cost control [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Modern Dairy reported revenue of 6.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 0.913 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 0.228 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Cash EBITDA was 1.477 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 2.5% year-on-year, while net cash generated from operating activities increased by 23.3% to 0.490 billion yuan [1]. Business Segments - Revenue from raw milk business was 5.069 billion yuan, a minor decrease of 0.8%. Revenue from comprehensive breeding solutions (feed, digital platforms, etc.) was 1.004 billion yuan, down 23.2%, due to a strategic shift towards high-quality customers [1]. - The average selling price of raw milk decreased by 10.1% to 3.29 yuan/kg, which was less than the industry average decline of 11.66%. Total raw milk sales volume increased by 10.3% to 1.542 million tons, mitigating some revenue loss from price declines [1]. Cost Management - The average unit cost of milk decreased to 2.32 yuan/kg from 2.58 yuan/kg in the previous year, with feed costs dropping significantly from 2.02 yuan/kg to 1.79 yuan/kg, a reduction of 11.4% [1]. - The gross margin for raw milk business remained stable at 30.2%, nearly unchanged from 30.3% in the previous year, demonstrating effective cost control despite falling milk prices [1]. Herd Optimization - The first half of 2025 saw a significant loss of 1.823 billion yuan due to fair value changes in biological assets, linked to the company's strategy of eliminating low-yield cows, which is expected to enhance long-term profitability [2]. - The proportion of lactating cows in the herd increased by 3.5 percentage points to 54.1%, and the average annual yield per lactating cow rose to 13.2 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2]. Market Outlook - The dairy industry is currently at a historical low point in the raw milk cycle, with performance reflecting the pressures of low milk prices. However, the company may benefit from the dual-cycle resonance of milk and beef prices as the latter begins to rise [2]. - As the industry undergoes capacity reduction and raw milk prices stabilize, there is potential for profit improvement in the second half of 2025 [2].
现代牧业(1117.HK)2025年半年度业绩点评：牛群结构优化 成本优势凸显