Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities maintains a "recommended" rating for Jiumaojiu (09922), projecting net profits of 147 million, 165 million, and 168 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 2.65 HKD. The company has a solid supply chain foundation and strong core brands, with the ability to continuously incubate new brands, indicating promising future growth [1]. Brand Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiumaojiu reported revenue of 2.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit of 61 million yuan, down 16.05% year-on-year. The net profit margin was 2.13%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 2.2%, down 0.16 percentage points [1]. - By brand, the operating profit margins for the first half of 2025 were as follows: Taier at 13.4% (down 0.4 percentage points), Song Hotpot at 3.6% (down 5.0 percentage points), Jiumaojiu at 12.7% (down 4.2 percentage points), and other brands at 15.9% (up 25.7 percentage points). The company has closed some non-core brands, reducing related expenses [1]. Consumer Metrics - The offline dining sector faced pressure in the first half of 2025, with a decline in turnover rates across brands. Taier's turnover rate dropped significantly to 2.2 from 2.7 in the same period of 2024. The turnover rates for Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu were 1.7 (down from 2.0) and 1.5 (down from 1.8) respectively [2]. - The per capita consumption for Taier increased slightly to 73 yuan from 71 yuan in 2024, while Song Hotpot's per capita consumption decreased to 99 yuan from 110 yuan, and Jiumaojiu's per capita consumption rose to 57 yuan from 56 yuan [2]. Same Store Sales - Same-store sales for the first half of 2025 showed a decline: Taier at 1.536 billion yuan (down 18.9% year-on-year), Song Hotpot at 288 million yuan (down 20.07%), and Jiumaojiu at 193 million yuan (down 19.85%) [3]. Store Structure Optimization - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total number of stores, including a few franchised restaurants, was 729, a net decrease of 42 from the end of the first half of 2024. Taier had 566 stores (down 48), with some direct stores converted to franchises, increasing the number of franchised restaurants to 19. Song Hotpot increased its store count to 31 (up 9), while Jiumaojiu had 68 stores (down 4) [4]. Supply Chain and International Expansion - The company is actively optimizing its supply chain and has begun trial operations at the Nansha Supply Chain Center, enhancing its digital capabilities. The Taier brand has expanded operations to multiple countries, including Singapore, Malaysia, Canada, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia, while Lai Meili has opened one store in Singapore [5].
华创证券：维持九毛九“推荐”评级 目标价2.65港元