业绩承压！今世缘二季度营收净利双降，全国化进程缓慢或成困境主因

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the liquor company Jiuziyuan for the first half of 2025 shows a decline in both revenue and net profit, marking a challenging period for the company since 2020 [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%, and a net profit of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [1] - The second quarter was particularly weak, with revenue dropping to 1.852 billion yuan, a significant decline of 29.69%, and net profit falling by 37.06% to 584.7 million yuan [2] Risk Indicators - The company's contract liabilities, which reflect prepayments from distributors, decreased to 599.6 million yuan, down 4.44% year-on-year, with a more severe drop of 44.68% in the first quarter [2] - Inventory turnover days increased to 549.8 days from 451.1 days year-on-year, indicating pressure on sales, while inventory turnover rate fell from 0.399 to 0.327 [2] - The total inventory rose to 5.569 billion yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year, constituting 40% of current assets [2] Expansion Strategy - The company is pursuing an "inverse expansion" strategy, with total production capacity reaching 60,000 tons after launching a new project in February 2024, and plans to add another 20,000 tons by 2026 [4] - Despite the expansion, there are concerns about overcapacity risks during a period of industry adjustment [4] Market Position and Challenges - Jiuziyuan has established a stronghold in the Jiangsu market with its three major brands, but faces challenges in expanding beyond this region, with only 9.03% of revenue coming from outside the province [4][5] - The company's revenue in its core market, the Nanjing area, fell to 1.753 billion yuan, down from 1.905 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a ceiling effect in regional market growth [4] Future Outlook - The management's five-year plan set a target of 2 billion yuan in revenue from outside the province by 2025, but current progress shows a significant gap to achieve a 13.3% share of total revenue [5]