Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-10 02:02Group 1: Company Strategy and Financial Outlook - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba Group (09988), emphasizing its focus on AI and cloud as core technology platforms and the integration of shopping and lifestyle services as significant historical strategic opportunities [1] - The company expects revenues for fiscal years 2026-2028 to be 1,064.3 billion, 1,181.7 billion, and 1,286.6 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 126.6 billion, 167.0 billion, and 193.8 billion, reflecting a slight downward adjustment for fiscal year 2026 due to higher investment levels [1] Group 2: E-commerce Business - The e-commerce sector is prioritizing GMV growth amidst a competitive environment, with a shift from low-price strategies to supporting quality brands and expanding external traffic [2] - The company is expected to maintain a year-on-year increase in monetization rates, achieving approximately 10% growth in CMR due to product and service fees [2] - Profit margins are under pressure due to ongoing competition, necessitating subsidies for merchants and users to prioritize GMV growth, which may lead to continued margin declines [2] Group 3: Instant Retail - The instant retail market is projected to exceed 3 trillion by 2030, representing over 16% of the overall e-commerce market, necessitating Alibaba's proactive engagement to meet comprehensive consumer shopping needs [3] - Short-term investments in instant retail may result in over 70 billion losses for Alibaba in fiscal year 2026, but long-term prospects indicate potential contributions exceeding 1 trillion in GMV [3] - The focus will be on enhancing synergies between instant retail and e-commerce, as well as optimizing user experience across various metrics [3] Group 4: Cloud Business - The global cloud market is expected to reach approximately 820 billion in 2024, with China's public cloud accounting for about 5.6%, driven by rapid advancements in AI and large models [4] - Alibaba Cloud, as a pioneer in domestic cloud services, holds about one-third of the market share and is experiencing accelerating revenue growth, benefiting from increasing demand for cloud services [4] - The company is actively promoting AI integration across its core products, enhancing its competitive edge in the evolving cloud landscape [4]