Luckin Coffee(US:LKNCY) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-10 05:51Core Insights - The shift in retail landscape is evident as fast fashion brands like H&M are being replaced by dining establishments such as SHAKESHACK, indicating a broader trend of dining brands taking over retail spaces previously occupied by apparel and beauty brands [1][3]. Retail Landscape Changes - High-end malls, such as Shenzhen's iN City Plaza, have seen a significant transformation, with 50% of their space now occupied by dining brands like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee, reflecting a nationwide trend of retail contraction [3][4]. - In Q2 of this year, dining establishments accounted for 30% of new openings in malls, with high-end malls seeing a ratio of 1.51 for dining openings to closures, highlighting an accelerated shift in retail dynamics [3][4]. Dining Brand Competition - Four main categories—tea and coffee, baking, hot pot, and noodle shops—are intensifying competition within mall dining spaces, with numerous brands clustering in prime locations [3][6]. - New tea brands are frequently appearing in key positions within malls, while baking brands are also expanding their presence, indicating a strategic focus on high-traffic areas [3][6]. Market Pressures and Opportunities - Shopping centers are increasingly reliant on dining brands due to rising vacancy rates, with projections indicating a 27% increase in empty spaces by mid-2025, particularly in tier-three cities [4][6]. - The apparel sector is facing significant challenges, with brands like ZARA reducing their store count from 183 to under 80, and others like GAP and H&M frequently closing stores [4][6]. New Market Entries - Over 120 new commercial projects were launched in the first half of this year, totaling approximately 9 million square meters, indicating a trend of continuous market entry despite existing vacancies [6]. - The restaurant sector is favored for its ability to attract customers, high turnover rates, and stable rental income, making it a preferred choice for mall operators [6][7]. Strategic Value of Malls for Dining Brands - Dining brands are increasingly recognizing the strategic value of mall locations, with 30% of Bawang Tea's stores situated in malls, primarily on the first floor, enhancing brand visibility [6][7]. - The standardized nature of the four main dining categories allows for quick adaptation and brand turnover, reshaping the commercial real estate landscape in China [7].