市场就是“不信”高通胀？摩根大通：5年了，还继续被骗

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley warns that central banks and investors in developed markets have significantly underestimated the persistence of inflation, as evidenced by five consecutive years of inaccurate inflation forecasts [1][3][4] Inflation Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that the core inflation rate in developed markets will reach 3% by 2025, exceeding the central bank's target of 2% for the fifth consecutive year [1][4] - Central banks have consistently overestimated the decline in inflation, with the Federal Reserve adjusting its one-year forward core inflation forecast upward by 10 percentage points since 2021 [1][3] Historical Performance of Central Banks - On average, central banks in developed markets have underestimated core inflation by approximately 1 percentage point over the past five years, with actual inflation levels exceeding targets by 1.5 percentage points [4][8] - The Bank of England has the worst performance, with an average forecast error of 1.8 percentage points and an average inflation overshoot of 3 percentage points [8] Market Reactions - Despite the persistent inflation overshoot, financial markets continue to rate central banks highly in their ability to control inflation, as indicated by the five-year forward inflation swap rates returning to pre-crisis levels [10][13] - Long-term market expectations in the U.S. and Eurozone have remained stable, while the U.K. has seen a decline of about 40 basis points [13] Risks of Persistent Inflation - Morgan Stanley highlights the "five-year curse," suggesting that sustained inflation deviations may begin to affect long-term expectations after five years, with recent consumer surveys indicating rising inflation expectations [14][19] - The probability of sticky inflation is estimated at 45%, while the likelihood of economic recession is pegged at 40% [3][22] Policy Independence Challenges - The independence of monetary policy is under threat, particularly due to political pressures, which complicates the task of re-anchoring inflation expectations [19][22] - The report emphasizes the need for preparedness for a prolonged period of high interest rates, contrary to market expectations of a rapid easing cycle [22]