Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest research report evaluates the innovative drug pipeline value of Fosun Pharma (02196) and its subsidiary, Hualan Biological (02696), indicating a total valuation contribution of approximately 72 billion RMB, suggesting nearly 80% upside potential from the current valuation of over 40 billion RMB, with a target price of around 145 HKD for Hualan Biological [1] Group 1: Innovative Drug Pipeline - Hualan Biological has established a diversified product portfolio consisting of antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), while also expanding into bispecific/trispecific antibody fields [1] - The company's sales have primarily been driven by biosimilars and PD-1 products, but its stock price has surged over 200% this year due to the promising potential of its innovative pipeline in clinical trials [1] Group 2: Key Products and Market Potential - HLX43 is positioned well for second-line/third-line treatment of EGFR wild-type non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with a peak sales potential of 3.9 billion USD in the U.S. market, supported by encouraging objective response rates [2] - HLX22 has shown significant early signs of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) benefits in a Phase II trial for first-line HER2-positive gastric cancer, with a peak sales potential of 2.7 billion USD in the U.S., Japan, and Europe [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Prospects - Serplulimab (PD-1) is expected to enter the Biologics License Application (BLA) stage in the U.S. in the first half of 2026, with a unique positioning in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) and ongoing Phase III trials for colorectal cancer and gastric cancer [4] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that 73% of Hualan Biological's valuation growth will stem from the global potential of its core candidates—HLX43, HLX22, and Serplulimab—while its extensive biosimilar global layout will mitigate negative impacts from China's volume-based procurement [4]
核心创新管线持续驱动增长 大摩给予复宏汉霖(02696)720亿元估值 目标价再刷新高