Core Viewpoint - The company, SF Tongcheng, is a leading third-party delivery platform in China, leveraging its advantages to meet the growing demand for instant delivery services across various new consumption scenarios [1] Group 1: Company Overview - SF Tongcheng operates an open and flexible instant delivery network, providing services for businesses and individuals, with revenue contributions in 2024 expected to be 42% from merchant delivery, 15% from personal errands, and 42% from express collection and delivery services [1] - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its ToB (business-to-business) orders, with a projected 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase from merchant delivery services in 2024 [1] - Collaboration with the group's express delivery business is enhancing operational efficiency, leading to a 32.5% year-on-year revenue growth in express collection and delivery services in 2024 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Instant retail is emerging as a new online retail ecosystem that meets the demand for "instant consumption" and "hourly delivery," driven by changes in consumer behavior towards more frequent, smaller purchases [1] - The industry is witnessing significant growth as e-commerce platforms and local service providers actively invest in instant retail to capture market opportunities, with the potential for cross-selling and increased platform traffic [1] - The ongoing optimization of supply chain efficiency is expected to expand the range of products available for instant retail, indicating a broad market space in the medium term [1] Group 3: Delivery Infrastructure - Instant delivery serves as the foundational infrastructure for instant retail, relying on a positive cycle of order volume, rider availability, and fulfillment efficiency [2] - The company differentiates itself by maintaining a neutral position as the largest third-party delivery platform, ensuring high-quality service and customized solutions for various industries [2] - The operational model of rider management is crucial, with SF Tongcheng employing a "quasi-direct" management approach to ensure service quality, contrasting with the franchise model used by some competitors [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 310 million, 600 million, and 900 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, reflecting a PE ratio of 38.9, 19.8, and 13.2 [3]
顺丰同城(9699.HK)深度报告：三方即时配送领军者 品质与协同共筑护城河