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关于阿斯麦(ASML.US)两种叙事激烈交锋:AI投资无催化 VS High-NA牛市叙事! 市场似乎更信后者

Core Viewpoint - ASML, a Dutch lithography giant, has invested €1.3 billion in French AI startup Mistral AI, becoming its largest shareholder, aiming to integrate generative AI technology into its operations to enhance lithography machine development and manufacturing efficiency [1][5][9] Investment and Strategic Partnership - The investment allows ASML to acquire an 11% stake in Mistral AI and aims to develop AI-enabled solutions for its extensive customer base, with ASML's CFO Roger Dassen joining Mistral's board [5][9] - Morgan Stanley views the investment as having a neutral short-term impact on ASML's earnings expectations, while UBS and Wolfe Research maintain a bullish outlook, raising ASML's target price significantly [2][4][10] Market Reactions and Stock Performance - ASML's stock has seen a notable increase, trading around €685 per share in Europe and $805 per share in the US, driven by the High-NA lithography machine deployment and the Mistral AI investment [2][4] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "hold" rating with a target price of €600, while UBS has raised its target price from €660 to €750, reflecting differing market sentiments [2][4][10] Future Growth Prospects - UBS forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 20% for ASML's earnings per share from 2026 to 2030, supported by strong financial fundamentals and demand for High-NA EUV lithography machines from major semiconductor manufacturers [10][11] - The transition of High-NA technology from laboratory validation to commercial deployment is expected to significantly boost ASML's long-term growth prospects [9][12] Technological Advancements - High-NA EUV lithography machines, utilizing a 0.55 NA lens, are crucial for advancing manufacturing processes at 2nm and below, enhancing resolution and efficiency in chip production [12]