CATL(SZ:300750) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-11 00:19Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, primarily due to the news of the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL, leading to increased supply expectations and a shift in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 4.87% after initially dropping over 7% [1]. - The Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which had been offline since August 10, produced approximately 10,000 tons/month, accounting for 12.5% of China's total lithium carbonate output [1][2]. - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to impact the supply-demand balance, with analysts noting that the market is currently in a phase of "expectations of resumption" versus "real demand" [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of September 4, lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous growth in supply [3]. - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, particularly driven by high orders for energy storage and power batteries, with expectations for demand growth to continue until November [3]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by approximately 1,044 tons as of September 4, with smelter inventories dropping over 3,800 tons, reflecting a high willingness to replenish stocks among downstream enterprises [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a sensitive phase with mixed signals, as the exact timeline for the resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine remains uncertain [4]. - Despite the potential for supply increases, the current strong demand for lithium carbonate may provide some price support in the short term [4].