CATL(SZ:300750) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-11 00:26Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by the news of the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL, leading to increased supply expectations and a shift in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Sentiment - On September 10, lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, with the main contract dropping over 7% before closing at 70,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87% [1]. - Analysts attribute the price decline to the market's interpretation of the resumption meeting held by CATL for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is expected to accelerate the return to a balanced supply-demand relationship [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which had been offline since August 10, produced approximately 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate per month, accounting for 12.5% of China's total output [1][2]. - Despite the anticipated resumption of the mine, the exact timeline remains uncertain, and the market is currently navigating between "resumption expectations" and "real demand" [2][3]. - As of September 4, lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous growth in supply [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Conditions - Lithium carbonate social inventory decreased by approximately 1,044 tons as of September 4, with smelter inventories dropping over 3,800 tons, reflecting strong replenishment intentions from downstream enterprises [4]. - The market is in a sensitive phase with mixed signals, as the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine and potential continued shutdowns at other mines may lead to ongoing fluctuations in market sentiment [4].