CATL(SZ:300750) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-09-11 03:37Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the potential resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which may occur faster than market expectations, leading to significant market reactions in lithium stocks and prices [1][3]. Group 1: Resumption of Operations - CATL's subsidiary is reportedly pushing for the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with expectations that the recovery speed will exceed market predictions [1]. - The mine's supply accounts for approximately 10% of domestic demand, and while its temporary closure had limited impact on supply-demand balance, it did affect monthly inventory levels [2][3]. - The company had submitted an application for the extension of its mining license before its expiration, and the approval process is reportedly progressing smoothly [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news of the potential resumption, lithium stocks and futures experienced a significant decline, with the lithium index dropping by 2.77% on September 10, and all 21 component stocks showing losses [4]. - Carbonate lithium futures saw a notable drop, with the main contract falling to a low of 68,600 yuan per ton, down 4.87% from the previous close [4]. - The market sentiment shifted to a bearish outlook, with many investors expressing concerns about falling lithium prices due to the resumption news [1][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the anticipated resumption, the overall monthly production of lithium has reportedly increased, driven by higher imports of spodumene and domestic processing rates [5]. - Current lithium inventory levels are shifting from traders to lithium salt manufacturers, indicating a transition in the supply chain [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the lithium market may experience a tight balance in the latter half of the year, prices for lithium salts are expected to gradually decline, with a projected range of 65,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton [5].