Core Viewpoint - The recent resumption of production at China Gold Group's Inner Mongolia Mining Company has eased market tensions in the molybdenum sector, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics suggest that significant price changes are unlikely in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The temporary shutdown of the Inner Mongolia mine led to a significant supply shortage, with an estimated monthly reduction of nearly 1,000 tons of molybdenum during the 40-day halt [2]. - Molybdenum prices surged by 14.8%, rising from 4,050 RMB/ton to 4,650 RMB/ton during the shutdown period, reflecting the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions [2][3]. - The global molybdenum market's supply-demand gap expanded from 848,000 tons to approximately 860,000 tons during the mine's closure, highlighting structural issues in supply elasticity and resource concentration [3][6]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The current molybdenum market is characterized by a super cycle driven by emerging demand and resource constraints, with "shortage" being a prevalent theme in industry discussions [4][5]. - The demand for molybdenum from the renewable energy sector has increased significantly, with its share rising from less than 10% five years ago to 30% in 2025 [5]. - The cost of molybdenum extraction has risen by 75% year-on-year due to increased environmental compliance costs and declining ore grades, further constraining supply [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the molybdenum market will depend on supply growth potential, changes in demand structure, and policy environment [7][8]. - The scarcity of global molybdenum resources is becoming more pronounced, with existing mines facing challenges such as declining grades and increased extraction difficulties [7]. - Policy interventions from resource-exporting countries and efforts by importing nations to secure critical mineral reserves may further influence global pricing and supply dynamics [8].
钼市观察:一矿复产,难解全球饥渴