Longi(SH:601012) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-09-11 05:30Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing significant challenges due to "involution," characterized by overcapacity, declining prices, and severe technological homogenization, prompting discussions on capacity exit and industry regulation [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry has experienced "involution" driven by three key factors: capacity mismatch, continuous price declines, and severe technological homogenization [2]. - The initial expectation for capacity exit was around one year, but current trends indicate a downward adjustment in industry expectations [2]. - The exit of capacity is hindered by the interests of various stakeholders, including companies, capital markets, and local governments, making the process challenging [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Interventions - Recent changes indicate a shift from self-regulation to active government intervention, with multiple government departments convening to address competition order in the photovoltaic industry [3]. - A meeting on August 19 outlined four key requirements: strengthening industry regulation, curbing low-price competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self-regulation [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is working with relevant departments to address irrational competition in key industries, including photovoltaics [3]. Group 3: Market Recovery - The photovoltaic market is showing signs of recovery, with significant price rebounds, particularly in silicon materials, which are now around 50,000 RMB per ton [4]. - The Wind photovoltaic index has risen significantly, from a low of 2210.32 points last August to over 3400 points, indicating strong market performance [4]. - Despite the recovery, the industry still faces the common challenge of effectively exiting excess capacity across various segments [4]. Group 4: Capacity Exit Standards - There is currently no clear standard for capacity exit, leading to discussions on whether to adopt a "leading enterprise" approach or a more uniform method [4][6]. - The industry is calling for stricter standards to ensure that only efficient producers remain in the market, which is crucial for the overall health of the sector [5][6]. - The "leading enterprise" plan, which was previously implemented, is being revisited as a potential solution to promote high-efficiency products and technologies [6][7]. Group 5: Quality Concerns - Recent issues regarding the quality of photovoltaic products, including power mislabeling and safety concerns, have emerged, potentially impacting efficiency and returns [8]. - The industry is urged to establish quality thresholds and mechanisms to guide resources towards higher quality production [8]. - A long-term imbalance in supply and demand could stifle innovation and investment in the sector, threatening its competitive edge [8][9]. Group 6: International Implications - The challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry are not limited to domestic markets but are also affecting international customers, leading to hesitance in order placements [9]. - Price pressures have resulted in significant drops, with some customers experiencing price reductions of up to 20% shortly after stocking [9]. - The extended shipping times due to geopolitical issues have further complicated supply chain planning for international clients [9].