UBS(US:UBS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-11 07:16Group 1: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti expressed uncertainty regarding the impact of global tariff policies initiated by President Trump on the U.S. economy and inflation, complicating predictions for Federal Reserve policy [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of rate cuts in September, with traders betting on three consecutive cuts by the end of the year to address a slowing economy and a weak labor market [1][2] - Barclays economists have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, aligning with Goldman Sachs' expectations, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to addressing potential economic slowdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the median economist estimate of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2] - The downward revision of previous months' employment data has led some traders to anticipate a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, with expectations for more easing measures from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3: UBS's Position and Regulatory Challenges - UBS is engaged in discussions with the Swiss government regarding trade agreements, particularly in light of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Swiss exports, which pose a significant threat to Swiss businesses [4][6] - The bank's relationship with the Swiss government has been strained due to UBS's opposition to new capital regulation proposals, which are seen as excessively punitive and could limit the bank's growth [6] - Ermotti emphasized that UBS has no plans to reduce its operations and aims to maintain its global presence while integrating clients from Credit Suisse, with the integration expected to be completed by next year [6]