Cinda Securities(SH:601059) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-11 07:49Core Viewpoint - The report from Xinda Securities indicates a significant decline in soda ash prices, leading to negative industry profits and substantial performance drops for listed companies by 2025 [1][3]. Supply Side - Soda ash production capacity accelerated growth in 2023, surpassing 40 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and expected to reach 43.45 million tons in 2024 [4]. - The production structure is changing, with natural soda ash's share increasing from 5% in 2022 to 19% in the first seven months of 2025 [4]. - Natural soda ash has a cost advantage due to its simple process and low energy consumption, maintaining full production even during price declines [4][6]. Demand Side - The real estate downturn is the primary factor affecting flat glass demand, with construction area declining by 12.7% in 2024 [5]. - However, automotive glass demand is providing some support, with vehicle production increasing by 10.5% in the first seven months of 2025 [5]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations but is expected to maintain long-term growth, with production projected to reach 2,734 million tons in 2024 [5]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) challenge, requiring supply optimization, demand stimulation, and policy guidance to improve the situation [7]. - The report suggests that high-cost production methods should be phased out to control low-level capacity expansion [7]. Investment Opportunities - In light of the industry's bottom characteristics, companies with cost advantages, such as Boyuan Chemical and Zhongyan Chemical, are recommended for attention [8].